Download the August 2011 Top 100 HECM Lenders Report here.
Big Names disappear, survivors grow
It’s strange to no longer see the familiar name of Bank of America on the top lenders report. Wells Fargo remains because endorsements usually trail applications by 3-4 months so soon they will fade from the top 10. What’s most interesting are the large and medium lenders who have begun to grab some of the market share left in the absence of Wells & B of A.
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You can click to see our video on race for market share.
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With just one month to go, it seems as if total endorsements for this fiscal year will be the worst in six fiscal years. It could be that after a 31% collapse in endorsements last fiscal year to just over 79,000 (from 114,785 for fiscal year 2009), the total endorsements for this fiscal year may not reach 73,000.
Right now it seems that the loss of major lenders may have less to do with the lower endorsement numbers than other factors. While trends make some of the reasons clear, until the FHA financial statement audit and actuarial study are complete, it is best to treat such indicators as speculation.
But one thing is clear; we have seen a shift in the conversion rate. It seems as if the dropout rate (a corollary of the conversion rate) from the point of case number assignment to endorsement has increased from 27% for each of the last two fiscal years to over 30% this fiscal year. This was quite surprising to see especially when the dropout rate was the same in our largest year of endorsements to a year of collapse. Last year it was quite amazing to realize that even in a year of collapse there was as much chance of an application with a case number getting endorsed as in the best year of endorsements the industry has ever seen. What has caused an increase in that dropout rate THIS fiscal year?
The changes during this fiscal year are important not only as to how marketing may need to be tweaked but also as to qualification testing and other matters but more on that over the next ninety days.