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   James E. Veale, CPA, MBT

   June 1, 2012 at 11:45 am

   On a macro basis, there is only one truly bright spot in this report. In each of the last five fiscal years, endorsements for May are worse than those for April; however, this is the narrowest that difference has been not only in amount (156) but also percentage (3.4%). Otherwise, except for the great news for individual lenders (like S1L, my employer), determining where the bottom of our decline might be is like catching a falling knife.

   Some may wonder why May is worse than April. The apparent reason is May usually reflects low Case Number Assignments in late December and early January, while April normally reflects post Thanksgiving Case Number Assignments through pre-Christmas.

   Normally, a discussion about case number assignments for April would now be presented but for some unknown reason, HUD has not provided its Outlook or HECM Characteristics reports on April activity to date. Prior to 2012 the reports were issued in the third week of the following month. Last month the reports for March were issued on May 1, just hours before the endorsement summary for April.

   From the other two reports we obtain information about Saver, Purchase, Fixed versus Adjustable, and Case Number Assignment activities. As soon as the Outlook report for May 2012 is released, very strong estimates of the endorsement level for this fiscal year can be made. Until then, enjoy the weekend.

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