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1. 

   James E. Veale, CPA, MBT

   July 2, 2012 at 12:37 pm

   There was a total of 5,187 endorsements for the month of June 2012. That total is 16.85% higher month over month from May 2012 but is 11.44% lower than endorsements for June 2011 (last year). The estimated conversion rate of applications receiving case number assignments into endorsements is now 67.53% for the last twelve months. The top ten HECM lenders had 68.38% of total endorsements for the month.

   MetLife had over 24.02% of the endorsements for the month while the next three lenders (One Reverse, Genworth, and Urban) combined had 22.42% of the total; the difference between One Reverse (403 endorsements) and Urban (357 endorsements) was just 46 endorsements. Then the next four (Security One, FNB of Layton, UT, AAG, and Generation Mortgage) combined accounted for 18.49% of the total endorsements for the month while the difference between the top (Security One with 262) and the bottom (Generation with 221) was only 41 endorsements. Rounding out the top ten were Cherry Creek with 96 endorsements and Reverse Mortgage USA with 87. Basically we see four distinct groups within the top ten with MetLife holding on strong to its unique position in the industry with 1,246 endorsements.

   For the second month in a row we are waiting for case number assignment information for the last month (May 2012) even though we have the summary for endorsements for this one (June 2012). When the May missing data is released, we should have a very realistic picture of endorsement volume for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2012. Right now that total is expected to be around 55,800 which will be refined when the May 2012 information comes in.

   As was the case last year, not all of the endorsement provided by MetLife and FNB are expected to be lost next fiscal year. While the total endorsements next fiscal year may shrink still further, most of the loss will be related more to the Great Housing Depression and senior consumer confidence than a loss in a distinct source of generating leads like foot traffic at the branch of a major bank. Many of us believe that many of the leads which were generated from that source at Wells Fargo and Bank of America account for much of the loss this fiscal year and that portion of the loss will end up being permanent even if annual endorsements once again exceed 100,000 endorsements. Since MetLife has no such distinct source for lead generation and FNB has a drop in the bucket of such leads in comparison to Wells Fargo and Bank of America, the vast majority of the endorsement loss next fiscal year should be temporary and recoverable as home appreciation turns around and senior consumer confidence returns.

   Some are predicting still deeper endorsement cuts next fiscal year but as of now, it is months too early to be making such predictions with any precision.

   (Copied from my post at Linked In for the Reverse Mortgage Mainstreaming group.)

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     Shannon HicksModerator

     July 2, 2012 at 1:16 pm

     Thank you Jim for the excellent insight and analysis. Much appreciated.

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       James E. Veale, CPA, MBT

       July 2, 2012 at 1:38 pm

       Thanks Shannon. We all respect the job you, Eric, and the crew at Reverse Fortunes do each day.

       It should be noted that my comment was written on the afternoon of June 30th when HUD issued the endorsement summary report for June 2012.

       Enjoy the Fourth!!!

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