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1. 

   James E. Veale, MBT

   September 2, 2022 at 1:31 pm

   Shannon,

   We are heading into difficult days in the next few months as to HECM originations in HECM Land. HECM CNAs (Case Number Assignments) were very low in July 2022 totaling just 4,777, down 42.5% from this year’s monthly high (so far) of 8,307 total CNAs in March 2022 with HECM Refis down to just 21% of the total CNAs in July, not even half of what they they were less than six months ago. Total HECM Refi CNAs were 1,023 in July 2022 but 3,458 last March!!! The maximum number of HECM endorsements we can expect to come out of 4,777 HECM CNAs is about 3,600 when the average monthly number of HECM endorsements produced so far in this fiscal year is over 5,500.

   The percentage change in HECMs endorsed in fiscal 2023 versus 2022 is far more likely to be our worst (a possible drop of over 39%) than our best. So what should we do? Quitting is one option but is that the right choice?

   Yet what is the reality for the industry as a whole does not have to be ours. If we are willing to work to find ways to mitigate any loss in production, such loss can be reduced. Fiscal 2023 will challenge us and cause us to question what we are doing but that has the potential of improving our resolve or diminishing any loss.

   Pessimism says that no matter what we do, things will get worse. Optimism says in the face of everything, things will get BETTER. Realism says that while we cannot control a lot in HECM land, putting forth our best effort provides the best chance of improving our own personal production and for success.

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