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   The Positive Realist

   May 1, 2023 at 2:23 pm

   At 1,963 HECMs endorsed during April 2023, April 2023 is the fourth worst month for HECM endorsements since January 2004. The other three months that were worse were all Covid-19 related. Further at 19,982, it is the second worst fiscal year to date total for any April since April 2002.

   While case number assignments earlier this year provide hope that April 2023 maybe the lowest monthly HECM endorsement total for any month in this fiscal year, it is also possible, it may not be. Although some may be quick to declare this volume a bottom for HECM endorsements, such claim was made earlier that has since been shown to be a greatly overoptimistic guess and also a very unintentionally false claim.

   Could or will HECM endorsement volume go still lower in the future? While that is a question for someone beyond my pay grade, there is no safety net against that happening. However, remember that both lender and HUD workflow and available personnel can hold down endorsement volume in one month only to see it rise to an unexpected level later, similar to what occurred to the March 2023 HECM endorsement volume.

   Paraphrasing the adage: “Expect the worst while hoping for the best.” Some wonder how much longer this can go on without further loss of larger lenders. Good question but then again one should hope for the best even in these times.

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