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EPISODE #815
How one reverse pro helped catch a fraudster
[Housing Wire]
A suspected fraudster who may have defrauded multiple elderly victims was arrested thanks in part to an alert reverse mortgage professional.
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[Reverse Market Insight] RMI’s Jon McCue returns to explain the latest reverse mortgage trends in our monthly installment of the Market Minute.
[Housing Wire] Fairway Independent Mortgage’s reverse mortgage division is making big changes in its strategy and key staffing.
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1 Comment
It seems Jon made his RMI comments before the release of the December 2023 HECM production report and the December 2023 HECM Snapshot Report
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The fact is total HECM endorsements for calendar year 2023 was the worst seen in 21 calendar years at just 30,546. At 1,959 H4P endorsements for all of 2023, the best that can be said for H4P endorsement production is that it was disappointing. For that matter, both totals are very disappointing.
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Perhaps even worse CNAs (Case Number Assignments) for December 2023 fell to a record low not seen since January 2003, i.e., in almost 21 years. This means that the total CNAs for December 2023 will contribute only about 1,600 HECM endorsements to the total HECM endorsements for this fiscal year ending September 30, 2024.
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Based on actual HECM endorsement totals for the first four months of this fiscal year, which ends on 9/30/2024, and a projection on HECM endorsements that will be converted out of CNA totals for October and November 2023, the total HECM endorsements expected for the first six months (i.e., through March 31, 2024) is expected to be approximately 13,500.
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Using HECM endorsement trend analysis for the last decade, it appears the range for HECM endorsements for this fiscal year will be no lower than 24,000 and no higher than 30,000. This bodes for a worse fiscal year total than last which was a little less than 33,000. In 19 years, this is the worst outlook for any fiscal year I can remember. It could easily become the worst HECM endorsement total for any fiscal year in 22 fiscal years.
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To pull out of this tailspin will take either substantial help from 1) the Fed through substantially reduced interest rates [of over 100 basis points] or 2) substantial help from HUD by reinstating both the PLFs and the expected rate floor as they were on 9/29/2017, Chances of either one occurring in 2024 seem quite remote and some combination of substantial help from both all but impossible right now.
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Due to this dim outlook, it seems there is not much hope of turn around until fiscal 2025 at the earliest.