Negative Interest Rates?! It’s not what most think

Negative interest rates? You heard that correctly. No, you don’t have to turn up your volume. In fact negative interest rates in the U.S. are here. (CNBC article). While you most likely will not see this economic anomaly mentioned on your local or national evening news, financial outlets have assiduously reported on central banks around the globe who are now pulling out all the stops in the effort to stimulate the economy. The European Central Bank, Sweden, and Germany currently are in negative interest rate territory and the U.S. may follow.

Does this mean the banks will pay you to borrow money? Not quite.

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Negative interest rates penalize banks for hoarding cash reserves instead of lending to consumers and businesses and earning interest income. It’s an unusual economic tool and a rare one at that. So closer to home- how will this impact our industry and older homeowners?

Savers and older retirees stand to feel the immediate impacts being unable to count on interest earnings to offset inflation. That could conceivably increase demand for alternative sources of cashflow such as a reverse mortgage. Last Monday the 1-year US Constant Maturity Treasury rate was just .10% or one-tenth of one-percent! The 1-month LIBOR index was a mere .157% and the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) was just .09%. Let’s assume the base index for the federally-insured reverse mortgage fell below zero percent. What impacts would existing borrowers see? First, their principal limit or line of credit growth rate would slow significantly- but not altogether thanks to the lender’s margin in the loan. Something to keep in mind when touting the benefits of future borrowing power with financial pros and homeowners.  Next, future home equity will be consumed at a much slower rate as the loan’s balance grows much more slowly than it would in a normal interest rate environment. Lastly, with the average lender margin hovering around two-percent new HECM borrowers will benefit by being in the lowest interest rate tier of the HECM’s principal limit factor tables bumping up the present three-percent interest rate floor. While the word ‘unprecedented’ has become increasingly popular in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the truth is negative interest rates have been employed on a few occasions.

And speaking of rates, Ginne Mae- the issuer of HECM Mortgage Backed Securities has provided a reprieve of sorts. In September our industry found itself somewhat caught off guard when Ginnie announced that any HECM mortgage-backed securities tied to the LIBOR index would not be accepted for any HMBS received on or after January 1st, 2021. That news came as a surprise as NRMLA was in active discussions Ginnie Mae, HUD and others on what replacement index would be used for future HECM loans. The good news is the deadline has been extended to March 1st. As RMD reported, “Ginnie Mae did contact the [reverse mortgage] industry, the members of which provided us with additional feedback relating to the volume of applications received by the initial publication date,” a Ginnie Mae spokesperson said.

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