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Live Well Financial’s 1 loan at the bottom of this month’s report seems to indicate their loan pipeline has cleared. The top 8 lenders this month remained unchanged from June. While endorsements are down considerably from previous years, there are signs that we may be seeing a bottoming out before a mild recovery- that barring any unexpected changes from HUD in the coming fiscal year.
This report was compiled from data courtesy of Reverse Market Insight.
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1 Comment
Where is the evidence of the growth we heard about in the RMD email this week. Was the email the result of the classic hyperbole of ultra optimists or the irrational exuberance of optimists? Most likely a little of each. With 2,754 endorsements for the month of July 2019, the start of the second half of calendar 2019 looks basically the same as the first half, after adjustment for the government shutdown that ended in January 2019. The claims of growth in the email were based on rather flimsy and speculative assumptions.
As one of the first to predict a horrific loss in volume in fiscal 2019 when compared to fiscal 2018, we are seeing the realization of those projections. Look at the 12 month trailing total for May 2019 of 33,036 or that same stat for June 2019 of 32,744, and finally that of July 2019 of 32,590. Again my prediction has 32,600 and Shannon’s most recent was 31,000 HECM endorsements for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2019.
Now at the start of the 11th month of fiscal 2019, the industry has produced only 26,513 endorsed HECMs in the first 10 months of this fiscal year. With just two months left in this fiscal year and looking at applications reported to HUD during April and May 2019, it would seem that total endorsements in fiscal 2019 will be slightly higher than 32,000 which is a bigger drop in volume than seemed reasonable eight months ago.
The volume of applications reported to HUD should be lower for July 2019 than June 2019. The volume in August 2019 should be slightly larger than either one of the other two. Based on that alone, it would seem that total endorsements for fiscal 2019 will be about the same as that for calendar 2019.