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1. 

   James E. Veale, MBT

   October 3, 2022 at 1:29 pm

   The total endorsements for fiscal 2022 was not 61,257. That was the total for the 11 months ended 8/31/2022. The total for this fiscal year minus 3 endorsements for CHUMS errors was 64,489. So the industry did 5% plus better than 61,257.

   Based on my understanding of the HECM endorsement process, the average application that eventually becomes endorsed does so about 4 months after receiving its HECM CNA (case number assignment). It is normally endorsed about 2 months following closing.

   The CNA volume in July 2022 was the fourth month of loss. It was 42.5% lower than the total CNAs assigned in March 2022, the best month in fiscal year 2022. The vast majority of the applications with CNAs assigned in June that will be endorsed will become endorsed in October 2022 (this new fiscal year, 2023). Welcome to HUD”S fiscal year 2023 that began Saturday and will end on September 30, 2023. The trend we just saw in CNAs for July 2022 are likely to show CNAs in the range of 3,000 to 4,000 for the months of August and September 2022 and continue so through at least March 31, 2023, if not throughout fiscal 2023.

   Looking back at HECMs endorsements in fiscal 2022 they waxed and waned after reaching their highest monthly total in March 2022. By September 2022 was a drop of over 50% in total monthly endorsements in September. Not a great harbinger for HECM endorsement volume in fiscal 2023. Several people predicted that H4P and Traditional HECM would grow quickly, replacing HECM Refi losses. That has not occurred and unfortunately it appears that the total endorsements for the month of September 2022 may be showing a reduction trend in these first time HECM borrower categories but more data (which should be coming from HUD over the next seventy days or so) should clarify that grim prediction.

   With no substantial growth in any category of HECM other than HECM Refits since 10/2/2017, are we merely dreaming about the growth in endorsements due to referrals from those in the financial, legal, and real estate industries or is it real? One long-time HECM originator recently described such increases in HECM endorsement from these sources in an interview on RMD as tepid. If it is otherwise, where is the empirical evidence to verify the claims of those promoting the unsubstantiated claim that such referrals are significantly if not substantially increasing HECM endorsement volume.

   But let us not so easily forget that HECM endorsement total for fiscal 2022 was the best such total since 2011, eleven fiscal years ago. The increase in HECM endorsements over that total for fiscal 2021 was 31.1%. The highest such percentage since fiscal 2007 was that seen in fiscal 2020 with a 33.8% increase over the total endorsements for fiscal 2019. Of course without HECM Refis, none of this could have been obtained. Yet we have a long way to go to catch up to our all time high for HECM endorsements of 114,692. Right now we need 78% more HECM endorsements to reach that lofty goal of 114,692 HECM endorsements in a single fiscal year..

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     Shannon HicksModerator

     October 3, 2022 at 1:34 pm

     Thank you, Jim. Unfortunately, HUD’s website with total endorsement data (CHUMS) was down all today until recently (https://apps.hud.gov/pub/chums/f17fvc/F17FVCQ-20221001.txt). Instead, I used NRMLA’s number not realizing it was a cumulative number through the end of August. We will be noting a correction.

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