US Treasury Yield Inverts: Is a Recession Coming?

A yield spread inversion often signals a coming recession. What it means for older Americans and retirees

Investors may have seen the dreaded check engine light flash. Last week the spread or difference between the 10-year Constant Maturity Treasury Rate or CMT and the 2-year CMT inverted. Last Tuesday the yield on the shorter-term 2-year Treasury was higher than the 10-year. That typically means investors don’t have confidence in long-term economic growth. It’s also a sign that a recession may be just around the corner. 

Just how accurate of a recession indicator is an inverted yield curve?

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