SVB’s collapse and U.S. Treasury volatility

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U.S. Treasuries yields fall in wake of bank collapse

What’s going on with U.S. Treasuries and the 10-year CMT?

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1 comment

The Positive Realist March 20, 2023 at 9:51 am

Remember in 2009 there were claims that H4P would quickly become 50% of all HECM endorsements. Fact, reasonable projections, and wishes are all very different and rarely the same number.

In the last 14 years, optimism has served no one well in this industry. Our current rate of HECM endorsement production is not one-third of what it was in fiscal 2009. With the rate of HECM endorsement production at less than 50% of what it was last fiscal year and with less than 3 months to go for the typical HECM application receiving a case number assignment to turn into HECM endorsements (to the extent they get endorsed) during this fiscal year, fiscal 2023 could easily turn into a worse fiscal year for HECM endorsements than even fiscal 2019, making fiscal 2023 the worst year for HECM endorsements in two decades. Some of the industry’s best known optimists were at RMF….

Fiscal 2022 HECM endorsement volume filled the glass over 50% when compared to that same volume for fiscal year 2009. It was THE best fiscal year for HECM endorsements since fiscal 2012.

To be clear we have a long way to go before we can say that the glass is even half empty when compared to fiscal year 2009 HECM endorsement volume. Right now the half full folks are in the wishing mode.


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